000
FNUS21 KWNS 060737
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
TRACK NEWD TO MN...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE
WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC NW.

...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AREAS OF SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LONGER-DURATION
MARGINAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONGST LATEST
NAM/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
INDICATE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL BE RELEGATED TO ALONG THE LEE
OF THE FRONT RANGE IN N-CNTRL CO...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS LOW RH
WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT TO THE N/E ACROSS SERN WY INTO WRN NEB/KS.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF A SURGE IN
LOW-LEVEL W/NWLYS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AROUND NOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN N-CNTRL CO...PRIOR TO WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS
OF STRONG N/NWLY WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ APPEAR LIKELY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF MUCH COOLER/HIGHER RH
VALUES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /FROM 20
TO 30 PERCENT/.

...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN...
AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY...WHERE ABNORMAL DRYNESS AND MODERATE
DROUGHT PERSIST. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THIS REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO
VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15
MPH/...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF NRN CA...
RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM AREAS OF GUSTY NLY WINDS /AROUND
2O TO 30 MPH/ OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. THIS HAS SUPPORTED POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY...WITH 12 TO 20 PERCENT READINGS COMMON AS OF 07Z. AS THE
TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WEAKENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH APPEAR LIKELY
WITH MIN VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING.

..GRAMS.. 09/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...