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000
FNUS22 KWNS 051643
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA
WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM.
...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
/AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND
SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE
REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50
INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY.
THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER
TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..GARNER.. 09/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE
NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING.
FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST.
...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY
CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON
MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF
STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE
DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS
APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES.
...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN
MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS.
...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA...
AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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