000
FNUS28 KWNS 051925
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

VALID 071200Z - 131200Z

SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO
THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM.
FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES
APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG
THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE
PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4
OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE
AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED.

ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE
CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

..GARNER.. 09/05/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...